{"id":393,"date":"2017-05-02T20:12:48","date_gmt":"2017-05-03T01:12:48","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/jebware.com\/blog\/?p=393"},"modified":"2017-12-13T10:22:58","modified_gmt":"2017-12-13T15:22:58","slug":"how-often-does-a-bill-become-a-law","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/jebware.com\/blog\/?p=393","title":{"rendered":"How (often) Does a Bill Become a Law?"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><strong><em>[tl;dr &#8212; about a quarter of the time]<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Every year as state legislative sessions get started, there\u2019s a flurry of scary headlines of the form: \u201c[State] [Party] files bill to do [thing I find scary, bigoted, or irresponsible]\u201d. \u00a0It\u2019s tough to know from reading whether this is something you should get concerned about. \u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Maybe you should, maybe this is the next big bill that will <a href=\"https:\/\/en.wikipedia.org\/wiki\/Public_Facilities_Privacy_%26_Security_Act\">make your state a national embarrassment, spark economic boycotts, and cause your Governor to lose his re-election campaign<\/a>. \u00a0Or maybe this is a <a href=\"http:\/\/www.newsobserver.com\/news\/politics-government\/state-politics\/article131495704.html\">crackpot bill and it\u2019s not going anywhere<\/a>, so don\u2019t waste your time. \u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Good reporting can help to fill this in &#8211; is this a senior legislator, are they a known kook, etc. \u00a0But there\u2019s another, more general piece of this context that I wanted to help fill in. \u00a0My question is, overall: how often does a bill go from being filed (its first official step) to becoming law (its final official step)?<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">First you need at least a rough understanding of how a legislature works. \u00a0You could watch the classic Schoolhouse Rock video:<\/span><\/p>\n<p><iframe src=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/embed\/FBpdxEMelR0?rel=0\" width=\"560\" height=\"315\" frameborder=\"0\" allowfullscreen=\"allowfullscreen\"><\/iframe><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Or I\u2019ll give you the 60-second version (skip to the next paragraph if you already know how it works): a <\/span><b>legislator<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> files a <\/span><b>bill<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">, which is a thing that they want to become law. \u00a0The person who files is called the \u201c<\/span><b>sponsor<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">\u201d or \u201c<\/span><b>patron<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">.\u201d \u00a0It\u2019s referred to a relevant <\/span><b>committee<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">, which is made up of a subset of the legislators in their <\/span><b>chamber<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> (the House or Senate, usually). \u00a0If a majority of the members of the committee vote for it, then it goes to the full chamber, if it gets a majority vote there then it\u2019s handed over to the other chamber, and the committee and full-chamber process repeats. \u00a0After that, the <\/span><b>governor<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> signs the bill then it becomes a law. \u00a0(Exact details vary by state, but it\u2019s probably pretty close to that, <a href=\"https:\/\/en.wikipedia.org\/wiki\/Nebraska_Legislature\">unless you\u2019re in Nebraska<\/a><\/span><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">.<\/span><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">\u00a0 Find your legislature\u2019s website and they probably have a \u201chow a bill becomes a law\u201d page to explain their version of the process.)<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The important thing to know is that bills can (and do) fail at any of those steps in the previous paragraph. \u00a0Depending on the rules of the chamber, if the leadership doesn\u2019t like the sponsor, or the bill, it may never even come up for a vote. \u00a0Or those votes will happen in a closed session of a subcommittee, where the public doesn\u2019t get to see which legislators voted to kill a bill.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Back to the point, I downloaded the history of every bill filed in the North Carolina General Assembly (NCGA), my state legislature, since 1985 and parsed out its fate. \u00a0The answer to my question was 23.6% &#8212; just under a quarter of our bills actually become law. \u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><a href=\"http:\/\/jebware.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/05\/bills-succeeded.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-396\" src=\"http:\/\/jebware.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/05\/bills-succeeded.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"800\" height=\"764\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">So when you see that scary headline, keep in mind that a bill being filed is actually more likely to fail without becoming law, than to succeed. \u00a0I\u2019m not telling you to ignore it, or not to fight it &#8212; on the contrary, this should encourage you to fight. \u00a0Be part of the reason that the bill you don\u2019t like failed. \u00a0Get out there and kill that bill.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" class=\"aligncenter size-full\" src=\"https:\/\/media.giphy.com\/media\/12QeJjgfzsMT6g\/giphy.gif\" width=\"480\" height=\"193\" \/><\/p>\n<p><em><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">I\u2019m sorry, I had to. \u00a0I don\u2019t even like this movie, but the pun was just sitting right there.<\/span><\/em><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Since I\u2019ve got all this data, I decided to answer another question quickly: how often does the governor veto bills? \u00a0This next chart shows how often, when given the option to sign or veto a bill, the governor chose to veto:<\/span><\/p>\n<p><a href=\"http:\/\/jebware.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/05\/bills-vetoed.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-397\" src=\"http:\/\/jebware.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/05\/bills-vetoed.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"800\" height=\"764\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">So, uh, not often. \u00a0There\u2019s a tiny little spike in the 2011-2012 session, when we had a Democratic governor and a Republican-controlled legislature, but even then it barely registers on the chart.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">If you got this far and you think this was at least a little neat, I want to do something for you. \u00a0I\u2019ve got all this data downloaded and parsed, and I\u2019m sifting through it, but I want to know what questions I should try to answer. \u00a0Here are a few that I want to tackle next:<\/span><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>a breakdown of where bills fail &#8211; in committee, in the full chamber, in the other chamber.<\/li>\n<li>which legislators get more of their bills passed?<\/li>\n<li>are bills with more\u00a0co-sponsors more likely to pass?<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Can you come up with others? \u00a0If you have a question or a hypothesis, tweet it at me <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/jebstuart\">@jebstuart<\/a><\/span><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">\u00a0and I\u2019ll see if I can answer it.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Following are a few notes about methodology &amp; assumptions:<\/span><\/p>\n<p><b>Why start in 1985?<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> That\u2019s as far back as the easily-available online records go (and almost my full lifetime) so I\u2019m calling that \u201cthe relevant dataset\u201d. \u00a0I feel like it\u2019s enough data to get a good sense of the overall pattern. \u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><b>Why are there only data points every other year?<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> \u00a0The NCGA operates in two-year sessions (e.g. we\u2019re currently in the 2017-2018 session), and that\u2019s how their bills are filed.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><b>What about resolutions?<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> \u00a0An NC legislator can file a \u201cbill\u201d or a \u201cresolution\u201d, but resolutions are typically honorary things without legal weight, so I excluded them from the dataset as not relevant to the question I wanted to answer.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><b>What about \u201cextra\u201d (or \u201cspecial\u201d) sessions?<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> \u00a0I didn\u2019t include them either. \u00a0They\u2019re typically single-purpose sessions with few bills filed, and I didn\u2019t want to clutter the data.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><b>Are the numbers the same for [other state]?<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> Not the exact same, for sure. \u00a0Maybe similar, maybe not. \u00a0I have a hunch these results are probably \u201ctypical\u201d, within a standard deviation or so, but I can\u2019t verify that without a lot of work that I\u2019m not going to do.<\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>[tl;dr &#8212; about a quarter of the time] Every year as state legislative sessions get started, there\u2019s a flurry of scary headlines of the form: \u201c[State] [Party] files bill to do [thing I find scary, bigoted, or irresponsible]\u201d. \u00a0It\u2019s tough to know from reading whether this is something you should get concerned about. \u00a0 Maybe &hellip; <a href=\"https:\/\/jebware.com\/blog\/?p=393\" class=\"more-link\">Continue reading<span class=\"screen-reader-text\"> &#8220;How (often) Does a Bill Become a Law?&#8221;<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mi_skip_tracking":false,"twitterCardType":"summary_large_image","cardImageID":0,"cardImage":"http:\/\/jebware.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/05\/bills-succeeded.png","cardTitle":"","cardDesc":"","cardImageAlt":"","cardPlayer":"","cardPlayerWidth":0,"cardPlayerHeight":0,"cardPlayerStream":"","cardPlayerCodec":""},"categories":[15],"tags":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/jebware.com\/blog\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/393"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/jebware.com\/blog\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/jebware.com\/blog\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/jebware.com\/blog\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/jebware.com\/blog\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=393"}],"version-history":[{"count":7,"href":"https:\/\/jebware.com\/blog\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/393\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":402,"href":"https:\/\/jebware.com\/blog\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/393\/revisions\/402"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/jebware.com\/blog\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=393"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/jebware.com\/blog\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=393"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/jebware.com\/blog\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=393"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}